A year ago, only half of the teams in the NFL really spent up into the salary cap; is there really reason, under these conditions, to endeavor even that amount repeating, let alone a spike? Can we not think there would be fiscal motivation to attempt and bide the time in the hopes that an entire category of players that might normally make $3M-$5M could be had for close to $1M? There is going to be a rash of players stuck awaiting the best one-year, prove-it bargain they can muster, I'd contend, and some may begin grabbing the small bird in hand earlier instead of later.

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The group of teams that seem to be obvious spenders is not really that long. The Eagles and Saints have fueled that fire in recent decades, but both are coping with significant cap issues and won't have the ability to push the industry anything near to what we've observed previously. The Patriots have as much cap space and roster flexibility as anyone, but do we really think Bill Belichick is going to go hog wild throwing around best-of-breed money and resetting the market at multiple positions? The Falcons and Rams -- additionally never averse to making new standards in spending at certain positions -- have more or less made their beds for 2021. The Cowboys could be hamstrung by a quarterback on another franchise label counting near $40M from their cap through most, if not all, of the offseason.

That's suboptimal from a spending standpoint.

It's likely to be the usual suspects -- historically bad teams under new direction with more cap space than they know what to do with, that have to overpay to get the best free agents to wink back at them now of the year. That'll drive the motor -- as it always does -- but I'm not sure there will be the thickness of competition we normally locate for all those players. I am thinking a half dozen teams will be willing to dip their toes into the deepest end of free service, headed by the Jaguars and Jets, and also possibly the Texans. The Raiders' failure to locate any defensive players of notice through numerous drafts could find them chase round the best linemen and linebackers and defensive backs they can find, but who else among .500 teams or better will probably be pushing them? The Colts will probably be competitive -- but in reason under judicious general manager Chris Ballard -- and also the Bengals certainly have no shortage of needs to fulfill, but do we think Mike Brown will be wanting to establish new spending marks along the offensive and defensive lineup, at which he needs help? I've got some reservations. Maybe the Titans?

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